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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."